Executive Summary

Record quarter: Core earnings $1.077B and diluted EPS $3.78; Total revenues $7.232B. Drivers were lower P&C CAT losses ($70M), strong net investment income ($759M), P&C earned premium growth and favorable PYD .
Broad-based P&C margin strength: P&C combined ratio improved to 88.8; Business Insurance combined ratio 88.8; Personal Insurance combined ratio 88.7 with notable auto/home underlying improvement .
Capital return and dividend: $547M returned (repurchases $400M; dividends $147M); quarterly dividend raised 15% to $0.60 (payable Jan 5, 2026) .
Outlook catalysts: Aggregate property CAT treaty has attached—up to $200M of Q4 CATs covered; LP returns expected similar to Q3; continued AI/tech investments supporting underwriting and distribution .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Core and segment earnings strength: Core earnings $1.077B (+43% y/y); Business Insurance core $723M; Personal Insurance core $143M; Employee Benefits core $149M .
Personal lines underwriting turn: Personal auto underlying combined ratio improved 3.6 pts y/y to 97.9; Homeowners underlying combined ratio improved to 74.4 with 12.7 pts lower CATs. “Personal Insurance achieved 3.7 points of underlying combined ratio improvement…” (CFO) .
Investment income momentum: Net investment income rose to $759M (+$100M y/y), with annualized LP yield at 6.7% and continued reinvestment above sales/maturities yield .

What Went Wrong

Expense pressure: Business Insurance expense ratio up seq to 31.1 (higher marketing/tech/incentive comp); Employee Benefits expense ratio up 1.4 pts y/y to 26.7 .
Disability loss ratio normalization: Group disability loss ratio increased 2.7 pts y/y; management cited prior-year LTD assumption benefit and slightly higher current trends .
Mixed underlying in BI: BI underlying combined ratio rose 0.8 pts y/y to 89.4, with higher workers’ comp loss ratio; management attributed minor deterioration to incentive comp and mix shift to national accounts .

Financial Results

Consolidated trends (revenues, EPS, margins; vs prior periods and y/y)

Metric	Q3 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Total Revenues ($USD Billions)	$6.751	$6.810	$6.987	$7.232
Diluted EPS ($)	$2.56	$2.15	$3.44	$3.77
Net Investment Income ($USD Millions)	$659	$656	$664	$759
P&C Combined Ratio (%)	94.5	96.9	88.6	88.8
P&C Underlying Combined Ratio (%)	89.7	88.8	88.0	89.6

Segment performance

Segment Metric	Q3 2024	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Business Insurance Net Income ($MM)	$528	$696	$710
Business Insurance Core Earnings ($MM)	$534	$697	$723
Business Insurance Written Premiums ($MM)	$3,275	$3,816	$3,573
Personal Insurance Net Income ($MM)	$31	$91	$139
Personal Insurance Core Earnings ($MM)	$33	$94	$143
Personal Insurance Written Premiums ($MM)	$970	$980	$987
Employee Benefits Net Income ($MM)	$156	$150	$144
Employee Benefits Core Earnings ($MM)	$154	$163	$149
Hartford Funds Net Income ($MM)	$54	$54	$57
Hartford Funds Core Earnings ($MM)	$47	$46	$53

KPIs

KPI	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
P&C CAY CAT Losses ($MM)	$467	$212	$70
Book Value per Diluted Share ($)	$57.07	$60.02	$63.86
Net Income ROE (TTM, %)	18.8%	19.8%	20.3%
Core Earnings ROE (TTM, %)	16.2%	17.0%	18.4%

Estimates vs Actuals (S&P Global consensus)

Metric	Consensus (Q3 2025)	Actual (Q3 2025)	Surprise
Diluted EPS ($)	3.2146*	3.78	+$0.57
Total Revenues ($USD Billions)	$7.213*	$7.232	+$0.019B

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous	Current	Change
Common dividend per share	Quarterly (pay Jan 5, 2026)	—	$0.60 (15% increase)	Raised
Share repurchases	Q4 2025	—	Plan to maintain ~$400M in Q4	Maintained cadence
Aggregate property CAT treaty	FY 2025	Attachment not reached (through Q2)	Attachment reached; up to $200M of Q4 CAT covered	Protective coverage activated
Property written premium outlook	FY 2025	—	Expect ~$3.3B property WP full-year	Outlook provided
Small Business written premium	FY 2025	—	Expected >$6B (~10% growth)	Outlook provided
LP returns outlook	Q4 2025	—	Expect similar to Q3 LP returns	Maintained
Ratings	Q3 2025	Positive outlooks	Upgrades by S&P and Moody’s (debt & FSR)	Upgraded

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q1 & Q2)	Current Period (Q3)	Trend
AI/technology investments	Emphasized small business AI underwriting, 75% bind in minutes; modern platforms; invest/run IT ~$1.3B; extending to middle market	Reinforced One Hartford digital experience; AI-driven capabilities; tech budget detail and cloud/call-center rollouts	Steady acceleration
Property pricing	Q2: property pricing moderating in large/wholesale; strong in BOP; 6.8% ex-Global Re; maintaining margins	BI property WP +11%; pricing above loss trend; highlighted disciplined cat mgmt	Moderation but disciplined
Workers’ comp environment	Pricing steady/slightly positive; loss trends ~3% medical severity within 5% picks	Market “steady”; minimal rate increases expected; favorable reserve releases continue	Stable
Personal auto/home	Q2: auto underlying mid-90s; homeowners low-70s underlying; rate moderation expected late 2025	Auto underlying +3.6 pts improvement; homeowners strong underlying; retention pressured but expected to ease as rates moderate	Improving margins; growth pivot
Tariffs/macro	Q2: auto tariffs impact modest for 2025	Tariff impact negligible in Q3; will reflect in 2026 trend picks as needed	Controlled
Investment LPs	Q2: LP yields muted; expected to improve H2	LP yield 6.7%; expect similar in Q4	Improving and sustained
Regulatory/legal (social inflation)	Persistent pressure; reforms in some states; industry focus	Continued vigilance; liability lines pricing kept above trend	Persistent headwind

Management Commentary

“The Hartford delivered outstanding third quarter results, generating record core earnings of $1.1 billion and a trailing 12-month core earnings ROE of 18.4 percent.” (CEO) .
“Business Insurance delivered excellent top-line growth of 9 percent, with an underlying combined ratio of 89.4… Personal Insurance achieved 3.7 points of underlying combined ratio improvement.” (CFO) .
“We have reached the $750 million attachment point for our Aggregate Property Catastrophe Treaty… CAT losses of up to $200 million in the fourth quarter would be covered.” (CFO) .
“We run basically $1.3 billion all‑in IT run and invest budget… still taking all our data and applications to the cloud… AWS Connect roll‑out across service centers.” (CEO/CFO) .
“Small Business… delivered record breaking new business premium… ENS binding up 47%… the power of our underwriting expertise, AI-driven capabilities and strong digital platforms.” (CEO) .

Q&A Highlights

Workers’ comp pricing/outlook: Management expects steady environment, limited broad rate increases; favorable and predictable reserve releases continue .
BI underlying ratio: Slight pressure attributed to incentive comp and mix shift (national accounts); full-year expectation “slightly below 88.6” underlying combined ratio deemed high quality .
Pricing discipline & competition: Liability (GL, auto, excess/umbrella) kept above trend; watching London market and large property appetite; selective pullback in large property .
Tech budget & initiatives: ~$1.3B run/invest; cloud migration; AWS Connect; focus on claims/underwriting/ops to reduce friction and augment talent—not headcount reduction .
Personal auto tariffs and retention: Tariff impact negligible to date; retention expected to improve as renewal pricing moderates in late 2025/2026 .
Capital returns: Repurchases expected to continue at ~$400M in Q4; dividend increased 15%; companies well-capitalized following rating upgrades .

Estimates Context

EPS beat: Actual $3.78 vs S&P Global consensus $3.2146*; Revenue beat: $7.232B vs S&P Global consensus $7.213B*. Target price consensus $142.06*; recommendation mix not disclosed by SPGI in our pull. Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.
Implications: Street likely to raise Personal lines margin expectations and BI profitability trajectory; LP returns and CAT treaty protection may support Q4 variance.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Earnings quality: Record quarter driven by core underwriting and investment returns, not one‑offs; underlying P&C profitability remains strong despite minor BI mix headwinds .
Personal lines inflection: Sustained underlying improvement and rate moderation set up for policy count growth; agency rollout of Prevail expanding addressable market .
Defensive positioning into Q4: CAT aggregate treaty coverage up to $200M reduces tail risk; LP returns expected to remain supportive .
Capital deployment: Consistent buybacks (~$400M/quarter) and 15% dividend hike reflect confidence in earnings power and capital generation; rating upgrades reinforce balance sheet strength .
Pricing discipline: Liability lines maintained above trend; BI property growth disciplined with risk selection; watch competitive pressure in large property and London market .
Technology edge: Continued AI/data investments are translating into faster bind rates and broader cross‑sell (specialty into small/middle), a durable advantage in distribution .
Medium‑term thesis: Multi‑engine profitability (BI, improving PI, EB stability, funds fees) with rising ROE and BVPS; a resilient underwriting posture and capital flexibility should sustain premium valuation if margin discipline persists .

Sources

Press release/8-K and Investor Financial Supplement: .
Q2 2025 8-K: .
Q1 2025 8-K: .
Q3 2025 earnings call transcript: .
Other Q3 press release: .
S&P Global consensus estimates: Diluted EPS and Revenues for Q3 2025 and Q4 2025 retrieved via GetEstimates*.

HARTFORD INSURANCE GROUP, INC. (HIG)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary